The 'Gaslight' Inflation Meter
Upload a digital receipt from 2021 alongside one from today. The math won't just make you angry; it will prove you are being hunted.
While the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) insists the economy has landed softly, your bank account screams otherwise. A persistent 59% of Americans believe the US is in a recession (Harris Poll, 2024). Economists dismiss this as a "vibecession," claiming consumers are just moody. They aren't.
The "Gaslight" isn't a conspiracy; it's a feature of modern AdTech. You aren't crazy. You are being calculated.
Over the last 12 months, retailers have quietly replaced universal price tags with "Surveillance Pricing." The cost of your coffee is no longer determined by supply chain disruptions or raw materials. It is determined by your phone's battery level, your location history, and your credit score proxy.
Why The Official Numbers Feel Like a Lie
If you feel poorer despite "cooling" inflation, it's because the government's calculator is broken by design. The BLS uses two primary tricks to massage the Consumer Price Index (CPI) downwards, creating a gap between reported data and lived reality.
First, Substitution Bias. This is the "steak for hamburger" logic. If the price of steak triples and you switch to hamburger to survive, the CPI model assumes your cost of living hasn't actually risen—you just made a "choice." They measure the cost of survival, not the cost of maintaining your standard of living.
ð Key Takeaways
- Why The Official Numbers Feel Like a Lie
- Surveillance Pricing: The End of the Universal Price Tag
- The "Owners' Equivalent" Trap
- Counter-Adversarial Shopping: How to Poison the Well
Second, Hedonic Quality Adjustment. This is the government's favorite magic trick. If a new car costs $5,000 more than last year's model but includes better safety sensors, the BLS might record the price change as flat—or even a price drop—because you are getting "more car" for your money. Try telling your bank account that the extra $5,000 you spent didn't actually exist.
John Williams of ShadowStats has tracked these methodological shifts for decades. His charts suggest that if we still calculated inflation using the 1980s formula—before these "adjustments" were introduced—today's rates would be nearly double the official narrative. Cumulative inflation since 2020 sits around 20%, yet Jerome Powell and the Fed focus on "Core CPI" (which conveniently excludes food and energy) to claim victory.
The government gaslights you with averages. Retailers gaslight you with algorithms.
Surveillance Pricing: The End of the Universal Price Tag
While the BLS plays with spreadsheets, corporations have moved on to AI. We have transitioned from market-based pricing to algorithmic extraction. Retailers no longer price goods based on cost-plus-margin; they price based on your specific willingness-to-pay score.
Real-time ledgers like Truflation capture market volatility better than government surveys, but even they miss the granular precision of modern "Surveillance Pricing." The price tag is no longer a fixed value; it is a liquid variable determined by an AI's assessment of your desperation.
How the "Desperation Metric" Works:
- Device Fingerprinting: Algorithms scrape your hardware specs. High-end iOS devices signal affluence, often triggering a higher baseline price than an older Android model.
- Urgency Signals: If your battery is at 5% and you are searching for a flight or a ride home, the algorithm knows you lack the time to shop around. Your price inelasticity spikes, and so does the fare.
- Geofenced Anchoring: Electronic Shelf Labels (ESLs) in physical stores are beginning to sync with app profiles. If you browsed a premium item online, the digital shelf label can update as your phone's Bluetooth beacon draws near, offering a "discount" that is still higher than the standard shelf price.
This renders the Chapwood Index and even the Big Mac Index partially obsolete. A Big Mac doesn't cost $5.69 anymore. It costs whatever the kiosk algorithm thinks you will pay before walking out the door.
The "Owners' Equivalent" Trap
The final piece of the gaslight puzzle is housing. The single biggest component of the CPI is Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER). The BLS does not measure home prices or mortgage rates. Instead, they call homeowners and ask, "How much do you think you could rent your house for?"
ð Worth Noting: If the price of steak triples and you switch to hamburger to survive, the CPI model assumes your cost of living hasn't actually risen—you just made a "choice
It is a survey of feelings, not a measure of finance. While Greedflation drives up rents and Skimpflation ruins service quality, the official data relies on hypothetical guesses. This lag is why the Fed missed the boat on "transitory" inflation in 2021 and why they are missing the affordability crisis now.
Counter-Adversarial Shopping: How to Poison the Well
You cannot change the BLS methodology, but you can confuse the retailer's AI. To reset your "Willingness-to-Pay" score to zero, you must look like a low-value, high-churn customer.
- The "Cart Abandonment" Protocol: Never buy an item on the first visit. Add it to your cart and close the tab. Wait 48 hours. Most algorithms are programmed to trigger a retention discount (usually 10-15%) to close the sale.
- Digital Smokescreens: Browse on a desktop with a VPN and an incognito window to strip away your "affluence markers" (cookies, history, device ID). Log in only at the moment of purchase.
- Check the "Dumb" Price: Always compare the app price against a non-logged-in browser price. If the app is higher, you are paying the "loyalty tax"—a penalty for being a known, sticky customer.
The "Gaslight" Inflation Meter isn't a physical tool; it's the realization that the price on the screen is a mirage. The government manipulates the average to keep markets calm. Retailers manipulate the specific to empty your wallet. Trust your receipt. It is the only honest data point left.